The Art Of Outright Tennis Betting_ Lesson 3 - Seeding

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01 November 2021

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The seeding process for any tennis tournament (World Tour 250 to Grand Slam), is very simple.

The total number of players, which can be 28, 32, 48 or 64, are listed in the order of their world ranking. Seedings are then given in descending order until the desired number of seeds are determined. Hence, the highest player in the world rankings is the No.1 seed, the next highest is No.2, then No.3 and so on.

The No.1 and the No.3 seeds are placed in the top portion of the draw and the No.2 or No.4 seeds in bottom. This is the usual format. The remaining seeds are then split equally so as to produce the framework around which the rest of the draw is made.

It's not rocket science, and tournament organizers may make changes from time to time. But it is something that every tennis backer should know - even though many don't!

However, a blind acceptance of these seedings in selecting outright bets is a HIGHLY RISKY strategy. They take little, or no, account of current form, surface form nor the rest of the players in the draw (in that a top seed might avoid other seeds until the QF's or SF's but they could still face some tough opponents in the opening rounds).

And the statistics firmly point to the fact that No.1 seeds don't win as many tournaments as you might think.

In the first 20 tournaments of 2010 the ratio of wins/seeds was:- No.1 (4), No.2 (4), No.3 (5), No.4 & No.5 (0), No.6 (1), No.7 (0), No.8 (1) and unseeded (5). This is right. Dewabet Slot Online Only 4/20, or 20%, of ATP Tour winners were top seeded. However, interestingly 5/20 (or 25%) were unseeded.

Example: Feliciano Lopez (Johannesburg 2010) WON 8/1

The Spaniard was the third seed in South Africa, and statistically the most successful. His success further supported the argument that not all No.1 seeds are guaranteed to win a tournament. They are not more likely than any other seed to win, according to the numbers.

While it is sensible to believe that the No.1 seed will be the best player in the draw (as his ranking is highest in the world), and therefore the player most likely to win, it is far too simplistic to use as a basis for a betting strategy.

When making outright bets, the seedings should only be used as a guideline. After all, the market leader is not always the No.1 seed. And if the bookmakers don't see him as the most likely winner, why should you?

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