For bettors who expected the Houston Texans to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.5 points in Week 9, it was hard to tell who was at a disadvantage. Watching the Bucs score the go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute left, or watching the Texans pull within two points with six seconds left, but then kneel over the ball on the ensuing conversion attempt (https://gbbet.co.uk/) because of kicker Kaimi Fairbairn's quad injury in the first half? The final score was 39-37, with the Texans just short of the cover, and the Texans' bettors had a real bad time.
That wasn't the only disappointment last week. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts apparently aggravated his knee in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys, but not enough to stop him from rushing 10 times for 36 yards in the Eagles' win. This brings Hurts' total to over 30.5 rushing yards, another dream dashed.
Speaking of dream breakers: according to OptaSTATS, the New York Jets were the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era whose defense sacked the opposing quarterback at least five times, held opponents to under 200 yards, did not allow an explosive play of 25 yards or more, and still lost by 20 points or more The team became the first NFL team to lose by more than 20 points. Clearly, it was not enough for the Jets to score 3 1/2 points against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, adding another loss to their disappointing record sheet (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-10-picks-odds-best-bets-49ers-get-back-on-track-vs-jaguars-cowboys-cover-large-number-vs-giants/).
Since I started the season with a 5-0 record, it has been a remarkable run. Even if my winning percentage for the games I picked was 30%, there is about a 13% chance that I will go 1-9 in my next 10 games. Maybe that's the punishment for picking San Diego State University in the March Madness bracket finals. Hopefully it will be smooth sailing from here.
Best betting record: 6-9
Player-prop record: 5-4
Picks are fixed at previous odds, although they are updated in bold when odds change. Check back later in the week for player prop possibilities.
Bye Week Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: 49ers -3, can go to -5 if Deebo Samuel returns.
The 49ers at Jacksonville should look a lot different than their recent three-game losing streak. San Francisco traded for Chase Young last week to bolster a struggling pass rush, and there are reports that wide receiver Deebo Samuel will return after being suspended for two games with a shoulder injury.
According to ESPN's Seth Walder, Young had a solid year with five sacks at Washington and a 25 percent pass-rush win rate on the edge. Prior to the trade, the 49ers pass rush ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate, which measures sacks per pass attempt (plus intentional grounding penalties) adjusted for down, distance, and opponent (https://www.nfl.com/news/week-10-nfl-picks-2023-nfl-season).
On the other hand, it is impossible to overstate what Samuel brings to the 49ers offense. When he is on the field, San Francisco averages 6.9 yards per play and converts 84 percent of its down series into first downs or touchdowns. When he is not on the field, those numbers drop to 5.4 yards and 71 percent. In other words, the 49ers are a top-tier offense when Samuel is on the field and an average offense when he is not. There is also the possibility that left tackle Trent Williams, who has missed the past two games, will return, giving the 49ers (and their supporters) even more reason to be optimistic for Sunday.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7½)
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Monday, 8:15 PM | ABC, ESPN
The Pick: Under 47, can play to under 46 (Broncos +7½ is the pick, but not the best bet).
Let's set the stage: the NFL under is 83-51-2 this season with a 62% winning percentage." The "Monday Night Football" under is 10-1 in 2023, failing to average over 7.5 points per game. The two games this season in which both teams were coming off extended rest were the Denver Broncos vs. the Green Bay Packers in Week 6 and the Carolina Panthers vs. the Houston Texans in Week 8. Both games were under by an average of 11.5 points.
Now, here are the teams we will be facing this Monday. Denver's defense has improved greatly since the start of the season. In the first three weeks, the Broncos were giving up 20.5 more points per game than expected, taking into account down, distance, and field position on each play. Since then, Denver's opponents have scored one point less per game at svenskacasinona.com.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has had a strange quarterback, Josh Allen, since he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 6 (which worsened in Week 8). Before the injury, he was averaging 7.8 yards per pass, but after the injury, he is only averaging 6.6 yards per pass, which is the league average. He also has a 3/20 success rate on deep passes (passes covering 20+ air yards) since Week 6, limiting the explosiveness of Buffalo's offense. All of this points to the Monday Night Under.
The above plays are our best bets for the week. Because, according to our analysis, its value compares most favorably to what we expect to happen on the field. Below you can find our Against-the-Spread picks for every game on the schedule this week. However, it would be foolish to try to pick every game. The house often wins because bettors (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-10-odds-expert-picks-best-bets-teasers-spreads-survivor-picks-tv-streaming-more/) try to make too many plays when the odds are not in their favor. Keep this in mind as you evaluate the rest of the week's matches. Odds Against
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