The first step in analyzing bookmaker odds is to calculate the implied probability. The implied probability is the bookmaker’s estimate of how likely an event is to happen, based on the odds they offer. It’s a key tool for assessing the value of a bet.
To calculate the implied probability, you need to know the odds and use the following formulas:
For Decimal Odds:
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
For example, if the odds are 3.50, the implied probability is 1 / 3.50 = 28.57%.

For Fractional Odds:
Implied Probability = Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator)
For example, with 4/1 odds, the implied probability is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%.

For Moneyline Odds:
Positive Moneyline:
Implied Probability = 100 / (Moneyline Odds + 100)
For example, with +250 odds, the implied probability is 100 / (250 + 100) = 28.57%.
Negative Moneyline:
Implied Probability = -Moneyline Odds / (-Moneyline Odds + 100)
For example, with -150 odds, the implied probability is 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%.

By calculating the implied probability, you can determine how likely an event is to occur based on the bookmaker's odds. This is crucial for identifying value bets, which we’ll discuss next.
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